MINISTRY OF INFORMATION
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HOME INTELLIGENCE SPECIAL REPORT NO. 48
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Speculation about an early invasion of Western Europe
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SECRET
As a result of a special request from the War Office and the Military Affairs Department, a coded teleprint enquiry was sent to all Regional Information Officers, asking what effect press speculation about an early allied invasion had had on the public. Replies have been received from all Regions, except London and the S.E., where the nature of the enquiry was misunderstood. They cover the period up to Tuesday night, 17th August.
Effects of Press Speculations
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Regional reports are unanimous in saying that newspaper speculations have had little or no effect on the public. Typical remarks are:-
“They don't know any more than we do ....”
“The press tipsters are largely disregarded; people look on them as professional dust-throwers ....”
“People put two and two together, from news and events, but don't take much notice of what the press thinks ....”
The public's views on probabilities
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Up to ten days ago, a move in the Mediterranean area was regarded as the most probable next step.
Now opinion in the Southern half of England appears to have changed, and an invasion of Western Europe in the near future is regarded as more likely.
In the North, Wales and Scotland, a Mediterranean move - particularly against the Italian mainland - is still looked on as more likely, though speculation about an attack in the West has increased.
In all regions, many other possibilities are mentioned: Norway, the Balkans, Crete, Greece and Yugoslavia.
Factors causing these speculations
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As mentioned above, press speculations have played little or no part in making people change their views. The factors which have been responsible in order of importance, are:-
1. The closing of the South Coast areas (6 Regions). From three regions, there are reports of some belief that the closing of the coastal areas is “a big bluff” to deceive and bewilder the Germans.
2. The increase in raids on French aerodromes, and on Germany, coupled with a falling-off of raids on Greece and Crete. (4 Regions).
3. Movements of the National Fire Service. Members of the Service are said to have been moved to the South Coast, and to have been told to take clothes with them, “as they will not be coming back for some time”. (4 Regions).
4. The increase in German raids on the South and East Coasts. (3 Regions).
5. The approach of autumn .... “We've not much time left this year”. (1 Region).
6. The concentration of shipping on the South West coast of Scotland. (From Scotland only).
Inside the closed area on the South Coast, it is generally believed that an attack on Western Europe is imminent. The only factors making for the view that it may be only an exercise are:-
1. The “relatively small size” of the area closed.
2. The absence of evacuation of civilian population.
However, the increase in raids on both sides of the Channel, and the evidence of military activity - especially the marking of roads and camp sites, more than balance the “exercise” view.
Rumours
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Rumours of movements of N.F.S. personnel to the S. and S.E. coasts are fairly widespread. These are connected with the possibility of raids on our invasion bases.
In the North Western Region, troops visiting home are reported to be saying that invasion is likely to take place at Dunkirk, as the beaches are so flat there.
