Detailed results of April Survey by the British Institute of Public Opinion
The following results of a survey made in the middle of April, 1942 have been kindly supplied to the Home Intelligence Division by the British Institute of Public Opinion. The survey was one of the routine monthly surveys of the British Institute, and was not sponsored by Home Intelligence.
1.
Public Feeling about Independents at By-elections
Q. a. “Do you approve or disapprove of by-elections being contested by independent candidates?”
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know
%
%
%
Total:
48
25
27
Men
55
30
15
Women
40
20
40
Age groups:
21 - 29
43
18
39
30 - 49
49
26
25
50 and over
48
28
24
Economic groups:
Upper
67
22
11
Middle
58
24
18
Lower
43
26
31
b. If disapprove: “Do you think that by-elections should be contested at all during wartime?”
Of the 25% disapproving of independents,
29% thought by-elections should be contested.
59% thought they should not.
The remainder did not know.
Comments
:
1. Altogether 55% think there should be contested by-elections in wartime. Of the remainder, over half express no opinion.
2. A similar question was asked in December 1939. Then, 28% said they would approve of by-elections.
3. The highest degree of approval is among men, and the upper income groups. The highest degree of apathy is among women, the 21-29 age-group, and the lower income groups.
4. These results suggest a decline in interest in conventional party politics and a big growth of independent political thinking along non-party lines. This entirely confirms the qualitative results of Home Intelligence in the past four months.
2.
Political popularity
Q. “If anything should happen to Mr. Churchill, who would you like to succeed him as Prime Minister?”
Nov. 1941
April 1942
%
%
Eden
38
37
Cripps
1
34
Bevin
7
2
Attlee
3
2
Beaverbrook
11
2
Hore Belisha
1
1
Herbert Morrison
2
1
Halifax
1
1
Shinwell
2
1
Others
10
2
No name mentioned
24
17
From our qualitative studies, it would however have been a little difficult to predict the continued popularity of Mr. Eden; his 37% of admirers have not been articulate. The possible source of error in qualitative work, resulting from the collection of spontaneously expressed opinion, is clearly shown.
Q. “Do you think that Mr. Herbert Morrison is or is not doing a good job as Home Secretary and Minister of Home Security?”
Yes
No
Don't know
%
%
%
Total:
50
20
30
Men
54
26
20
Women
46
14
40
Age groups:
21 - 29
44
19
37
30 - 49
50
20
30
50 and over
54
20
26
Economic groups:
Upper
60
26
14
Middle
54
24
22
Lower
49
18
33
It would be quite impossible to predict these results from our qualitative studies. Mr. Morrison's critics among the public have spoken louder and longer than his admirers. Two of his recent actions have been widely but quietly admired:-
His warning to the “Daily Mirror”. The “Mirror” itself was far from popular, and the fact that the treatment accorded to the “capitalist press” was not very different from that of “The Daily Worker” was applauded.
His conduct of the “Blatherwick-Fisher” case. Here again, his “impartiality in dealing sternly with the high-ups” was welcomed.
These figures supply a corrective to the material which has appeared in the Home Intelligence Weekly Reports.
3.
Victory this year
Q. “Do you think it is possible for the Allies to defeat Germany this year?”
Yes
No
Don't know
%
%
%
Total:
41
40
19
Men
41
44
15
Women
41
35
24
Age Groups:
21 - 29
34
44
22
30 - 49
41
42
17
50 and over
44
36
20
Economic Groups:
Upper
37
50
13
Middle
41
43
16
Lower
41
38
21
Comments
1. The only marked differences in the breakdowns are the lower degrees of optimism among the lower age groups and the upper economic groups.
2. The result confirms entirely our qualitative studies.
4.
The Budget
Q. “Do you think that the new budget proposals spread taxation fairly amongst all groups?”
Yes
No
Don't know
%
%
%
Total:
45
44
11
Men
42
52
6
Women
48
35
17
Age Groups:
21 - 29
42
46
12
30 - 49
45
46
9
50 and over
47
41
12
Economic Groups:
Upper
58
35
7
Middle
53
41
6
Lower
42
45
13
Comments
1. The upper income groups and women tend to think the budget fair, while the lower income groups are more critical.
2. Complaints expressed by persons interviewed fell under 3 heads:-
a. The heavy taxes on drink
b. The heavy taxes on tobacco
c. The heavy burden on people with fixed incomes, particularly old-age pensioners.
3. These results entirely confirm our qualitative studies.
