Home Intelligence Division
APPENDIX
SECRET
FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY
Results of a survey by the British Institute of Public opinion, completed on December 27, 1942
.
The following results have been supplied to the Home Intelligence Division. The Survey was not sponsored by the Division.
1.
Duration of the War
.
Q: “How long do you think the war will last from now?”
Present survey Dec. 1942
Sept. 1942
June 1942
Dec. 1941
Jan. 1941
%
%
%
%
%
6 months
14
8
11
5
7
1 year
35
25
28
15
23
18 months
21
15
22
13
8
2 years
19
24
21
29
18
3 years
5
10
7
18
8
Longer
3
9
5
16
7
Don't know
3
9
6
4
29
Comments
:
1. The percentage of people expecting the war to end within 18 months is now 70%, as compared with 48% in September 1942, 61% in June 1942, 33% in December 1941, and 38% in January 1941. The high figure in June 1942 was associated with a wave of optimism occasioned by the first thousand bomber raid, improved Russian resistance, and initial success in Libya. The present high figure is undoubtedly connected with events in North Africa and Russia.
It is worth noting that the present figures for expectation of 6 months' and one year's more war are both higher than ever before.
2. An additional question was asked:-
Q: “Have your views on this changed recently?”
Yes
No
44%
56%
“Why?”
The allied offensive in North Africa was the main reason given for change. The main reason for not changing was that people had “always expected it to be a long war”. The figure 5 years was quite frequently mentioned.
2.
The war against Japan
.
Q: “Mr. Churchill says that if Germany is beaten first, we shall continue to fight until Japan is defeated. Do you approve or disapprove of this course?”
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know
%
%
%
Total:
88
6
6
Men
90
6
4
Women
86
6
8
Age groups:
21 - 29
89
7
4
30 - 49
88
6
6
50 and over
86
6
8
Social groups:
Higher
96
2
2
Middle
89
5
6
Lower
87
6
7
Comment:
These figures probably reflect the general mood of optimism.
3.
The Prime Minister
.
The following serial results show that in the past 3 months the Prime Minister's popularity has reached the highest level it has ever attained.
Q: “In general do you approve or disapprove of Mr. Churchill as Prime Minister?”
Date
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know
%
%
%
1940
Oct. 12.
89
6
5
Nov. 9.
88
7
5
1941
Jan. 4.
85
7
8
Mar. 7.
88
7
5
June 15.
87
9
4
Oct. 19.
84
11
5
Dec. 19.
88
8
4
1942
Jan. 16.
89
7
4
Feb. 14.
82
11
7
Mar. 17.
81
13
6
Apr. 17.
82
13
5
May 18.
87
8
5
June 16.
86
9
5
July 20.
78
15
7
Aug. 22.
82
11
7
Sept. 20.
82
10
8
Oct. 18.
83
11
6
Nov. 15.
91
7
2
Dec. 27.
93
5
2
4.
The Government as a whole
.
Similar serial results, relating to the Government as a whole, are given below. These start rather later than those for the Prime Minister. They reflect however a similar trend.
Q: “Are you satisfied or dis-satisfied with the Government's conduct of the war?”
