A History of the Ministry of Information, 1939-46

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Home Intelligence Division
APPENDIX
SECRET
FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY

Results of a survey by the British Institute of Public opinion, completed on December 27, 1942 .

The following results have been supplied to the Home Intelligence Division. The Survey was not sponsored by the Division.

1. Duration of the War .

Q: “How long do you think the war will last from now?”

Present survey Dec. 1942 Sept. 1942 June 1942 Dec. 1941 Jan. 1941
% % % % %
6 months 14 8 11 5 7
1 year 35 25 28 15 23
18 months 21 15 22 13 8
2 years 19 24 21 29 18
3 years 5 10 7 18 8
Longer 3 9 5 16 7
Don't know 3 9 6 4 29

Comments :

1. The percentage of people expecting the war to end within 18 months is now 70%, as compared with 48% in September 1942, 61% in June 1942, 33% in December 1941, and 38% in January 1941. The high figure in June 1942 was associated with a wave of optimism occasioned by the first thousand bomber raid, improved Russian resistance, and initial success in Libya. The present high figure is undoubtedly connected with events in North Africa and Russia.

It is worth noting that the present figures for expectation of 6 months' and one year's more war are both higher than ever before.

2. An additional question was asked:-

Q: “Have your views on this changed recently?”

“Why?”

The allied offensive in North Africa was the main reason given for change. The main reason for not changing was that people had “always expected it to be a long war”. The figure 5 years was quite frequently mentioned.

2. The war against Japan .

Q: “Mr. Churchill says that if Germany is beaten first, we shall continue to fight until Japan is defeated. Do you approve or disapprove of this course?”

Approve Disapprove Don't know
% % %
Total: 88 6 6
Men 90 6 4
Women 86 6 8
Age groups:
21 - 29 89 7 4
30 - 49 88 6 6
50 and over 86 6 8
Social groups:
Higher 96 2 2
Middle 89 5 6
Lower 87 6 7

Comment:

These figures probably reflect the general mood of optimism.

3. The Prime Minister .

The following serial results show that in the past 3 months the Prime Minister's popularity has reached the highest level it has ever attained.

Q: “In general do you approve or disapprove of Mr. Churchill as Prime Minister?”

Date Approve Disapprove Don't know
% % %
1940 Oct. 12. 89 6 5
Nov. 9. 88 7 5
1941 Jan. 4. 85 7 8
Mar. 7. 88 7 5
June 15. 87 9 4
Oct. 19. 84 11 5
Dec. 19. 88 8 4
1942 Jan. 16. 89 7 4
Feb. 14. 82 11 7
Mar. 17. 81 13 6
Apr. 17. 82 13 5
May 18. 87 8 5
June 16. 86 9 5
July 20. 78 15 7
Aug. 22. 82 11 7
Sept. 20. 82 10 8
Oct. 18. 83 11 6
Nov. 15. 91 7 2
Dec. 27. 93 5 2

4. The Government as a whole .

Similar serial results, relating to the Government as a whole, are given below. These start rather later than those for the Prime Minister. They reflect however a similar trend.

Q: “Are you satisfied or dis-satisfied with the Government's conduct of the war?”

Date Satisfied Dis-satisfied Don't know
% % %
1941 June 15. 58 30 12
Oct. 19. 44 38 18
1942 Mar. 17. 35 50 15
Apr. 17. 50 38 12
May 18. 63 24 13
June 16. 57 26 17
July 20. 41 42 17
Aug. 22. 45 38 17
Sept. 20. 41 37 22
Oct. 18. 49 35 16
Nov. 15. 75 17 8
Dec. 27. 75 16 9

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